Well, here it is, at least what I can figure out on this. I’ll put in what I figure the Pack will do and other comments. This is all based on an expected cap of $85.5M. Currently, the Packers have 61 players under contract for 2005 for total expenditures of $92.3M, so they are $6.8 over (simple math here people).
So, how do the brains of the organization handle this? Why cutting players with unfriendly cap numbers of course! Now, this is not a great scenario to be at in the first place, but it is what it is, so let’s deal with it.
Now, the obvious choice is to cut Mike Wahle, starting OG. He is slated to make 11.3M next year. By cutting him, the Packers only take a 750k cap hit for pro-rated signing bonus remaining. That move alone gets the Pack under the cap.
However, to help them get even further under the cap, Darren Sharper needs to be dealt with. He is set to make 8.6M against the cap. Now, I like Sharper, but he’s not really receptive to reworking his contract, so he’ll need to go too. The Packers would get hit with 3.4M to the cap. These two moves would get the Packers 9.1M under the cap, with 59 players signed. Not too shabby.
However, the Packers will be losing Franks and Najeh to FA, no doubt about it. The Packers cannot afford to sign them and address other areas as they will command too much $. Najeh wants to start somewhere and he will get lots of interest. Franks will probably get 3-4M/yr from some team, and it won’t be the Pack. The Pack will have to sign/draft a TE and a backup RB, although I believe they can get a good backup through a lower draft choice in that area. With Fisher still around, the need here is not as great as it could have been.
The other issue is that both their starting OG will be gone. Now, Wahle can be brought back for about 3M/yr, but Rivera will get 4-5M/yr given he has the multiple Pro-Bowls to his credit. Wahle might be brought back, but I can see the Packers letting both go and draft an OG and signing a cheaper FA one. Another option is to sign Kevin Barry to 1m/yr and move Tauscher from RT to RG. Barry’s been banged up some, but it’s not too risky of a move. This scenario would bring the remaining cap to 8.1M.
Also, the Pack will need to sign Nall and O’Sullivan as the backup QBs and get them both for 900k, as there is really no competition for their services. Cap left 7.2M.
Now, should Favre retire (horrible as that may seem), it would actually be a cap savings of 6.1M. This would certainly free up $ if the Packers really want Hasselbeck or Brees, however, I think that the Packers will not be able to get either one. SD has over 20M in cap space and can actually franchise Brees, pay him 10M and be in good shape. Plus, if anyone signs him, SD gets another 1st rd draft choice to go with the 2 they already have. Hasselbeck will be able to get more $ than the Packers are willing to pay. Given this, I still believe that the Packers will go with Nall should this situation come up and sign a veteran backup. This situation would allow the Packers to be in great cap shape. Just in case anyone was wondering, should Favre play this season and next season, then retire he would count 0 against the cap as he is only base salary after the 2006 season.
Given I believe Favre will be back, I’ll assume that the Packers now have 7.2M in cap to get FA and sign draft picks. I originally thought that Hunt was going to be cut, as was Roman. However, Hunt would actually be a hit of 1.25M should he be cut, and Roman costs only 725k, so they are fairly cheap and with Sharper gone, Roman needs to stay. Hunt will be a cap casualty next season unless he suddenly steps it up to near Pro-Bowl level, and I think he will respond to Bates system and personality.
I honestly believe that the Packers are going to do something with 1 of their 2 2nd rd picks, probably the one from NO (it’s the 8th pick in rd 2) they have this draft, be it in trading up in the 1st round to get say, Spears or Shawn Cody who would fit nicely in Bates new scheme, or for a trade for a Safety.
Well, that’s my thinking on this situation at least. Have a good weekend all!
3 comments:
Wow Craig. That was impressive. Almost a lesson in how the cap works. Personally I think you've got a little too much faith in Nall, but then again what other options do the Packers have? I also agree that Favre will be back. Perhaps he is waiting to see what the Vikings do with all their cap space? If they spent it all and finally put together a top notch defense, I would think Favre would not see the point in returning. Hey, a guy can dream can't he?
Shane
Shane,
It certainly was a lesson on how the cap works in doing all the research, but it actually makes sense and becomes pretty easy once you grasp the basics. I'm not expecting 3 time MVP out of Nall, but I believe he has a great deal of potential. He was outstanding in NFL Euorope and led the league in passing 1 year and was 2nd in the other year he was there (both over 90). Given that he has a very good RB in Green and outstanding WRs, he has less pressure on himself to be great and can grow into the role.
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